Predicting 9-1 Grades in English and Maths – a suggested statistical approach

In my visits to schools I am finding that many senior leaders and data managers think that packages like SISRA can be used to predict 9-1 grades next year and extend this to Attainment 8 and Progress 8 scores. However even a fairly basic understanding of the issues here show that it is not possible to predict future grades or scores based on historical data. In my view (and the view of a number of my colleagues) the most reliable way of predicting the Summer performance is to use the statistical analysis that I outline here in my paper:-Using Statistical Analysis to Predict 9-1 grades in English and Maths. However note that no prediction method is perfect so I only assert that I think this is the best and most definitely better that using 2016 methodology.

Using Statistical Analysis to Predict 9-1 grades in English and Maths